Validating the Literature
Validating the Literature
A verification of COVID-19's long-term effects through anomaly detection
Validating the Literature
A verification of COVID-19's long-term effects through anomaly detection
Devin Lim, Ponnu Soman, Duong Le, Lakshit GuptaBackground
Background
COVID reported death-toll: ~1,200,000[1]
Background
COVID reported death-toll: ~1,200,000[1]
Background
COVID reported death-toll: ~1,200,000[1]
→ Unfortunately... there's more
What the Literature Says
What the Literature Says
- Measurable effects long after the initial infection
- Over a quarter of patients have symptoms 6 months after the infection
- Damages every part of the body
- Brain
- Lungs
- Heart
- Kidneys
- And more..
→ How?
Mechanism
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria → necroptosis
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria → necroptosis → organ damage
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria → necroptosis → organ damage
- Excessive immune response
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria → necroptosis → organ damage
- Excessive immune response → inflammation & blood clots
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria → necroptosis → organ damage
- Excessive immune response → inflammation & blood clots → more organ damage
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria → necroptosis → organ damage
- Excessive immune response → inflammation & blood clots → more organ damage
- Blood clots → stroke
Mechanism
- Damage to the mitochondria → nectroptosis → organ damage
- Excessive immune response → inflammation & blood clots → more organ damage
- Blood clots → stroke
→ Seems... worrying
The Big Question:
The Big Question:
Are the claims true?
Methodology
Methodology
A little revisit:
Methodology
A little revisit:
Is this accurate?
Is this accurate?
How is it counted anyway?
Death Certificates
Death Certificates
Any mention of COVID == 1 count
Problems?
Problems?
- Human Error
- Indirect, delayed deaths
- Inconsistency between jurisdictions
- Limited testing capacity, especially early in the pandemic
- And so on...
→ Underreporting!
Solution?
Solution?
Excess Mortality
Excess Mortality
Idea: Death rate is fairly constant year-over-year
Excess Mortality
Idea: Death rate is fairly constant year-over-year
Excess Mortality
Steps:
- Ignore reported count
- Calculate expected deaths
- Compare with actual deaths
Result:
- A sudden, drastic increase in deaths
- Pattern follows reported deaths
- An undercount of ~200,000!
→ Can we do the same with other diseases?
Data Methodology
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Chronic Health Indicators
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
- Respiratory diseases
- Cardiovascular diseases
- Depression
- Diabetes
- Kidney
- Cancer
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Chronic Health Indicators
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
- Respiratory diseases
- Cardiovascular diseases
- Depression
- Diabetes
- Kidney
- Cancer
Prevalence of Disability Status and Types
Disability and Health Data System
- Overall disability rates
- Breakdown by disability types
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Chronic Health Indicators
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
- Respiratory diseases
- Cardiovascular diseases
- Depression
- Diabetes
- Kidney
- Cancer
Prevalence of Disability Status and Types
Disability and Health Data System
- Overall disability rates
- Breakdown by disability types
Daily COVID-19 Vaccines Administered
Our World in Data + CDC
- Vaccines
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Chronic Health Indicators
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
- Respiratory diseases
- Cardiovascular diseases
- Depression
- Diabetes
- Kidney
- Cancer
Prevalence of Disability Status and Types
Disability and Health Data System
- Overall disability rates
- Breakdown by disability types
Daily COVID-19 Vaccines Administered
Our World in Data + CDC
- Vaccines
Deaths Involving Coronavirus Disease
Department of Health & Human Services
- COVID death-toll
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Standard stuff: filtering, renaming, grouping, sorting
brfss_filters = {
"Locationabbr": ["UW"],
"Topic": [
"Asthma",
"COPD",
...
],
"Response": ["Yes"],
}
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Standard stuff: filtering, renaming, grouping, sorting
brfss_filters = {
"Locationabbr": ["UW"],
"Topic": [
"Asthma",
"COPD",
...
],
"Response": ["Yes"],
}
brfss_col_renames = {
"Locationabbr": "LocationAbbr",
"Data_value": "DataValue",
...
}
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Standard stuff: filtering, renaming, grouping, sorting
brfss_filters = {
"Locationabbr": ["UW"],
"Topic": [
"Asthma",
"COPD",
...
],
"Response": ["Yes"],
}
brfss_col_renames = {
"Locationabbr": "LocationAbbr",
"Data_value": "DataValue",
...
}
brfss_val_renames = {
"Question": {
"Adults who have been told they currently have asthma (variable calculated from one or more BRFSS questions)": "Current Asthma",
"Ever told you had angina or coronary heart disease?": "Coronary Heart Disease",
...
},
"Topic": {
"Asthma": "Respiratory Diseases",
"COPD": "Respiratory Diseases",
"Other Cancer": "Cancer",
},
}
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Spline
Data Methodology
Data Sourcing
Data Cleaning
Prediction Methods
Spline
Time Series
Chronic Health Indicators
- JACI: There is evidence that COVID-19 increases the risk of developing asthma
- We were not able to find evidence of a causal link between COVID-19 and COPD
- American Heart Association: There is evidence that COVID-19 causes lasting heart damage and increases the risk of stroke and heart attack
- Yale: There is strong evidence of significant increases in brain-related symptoms after a COVID-19 infection. Depression is one such symptom.
- Cedars-Sinai Medical Center: There is strong evidence that COVID-19 increases the risk of new-onset (type 2) diabetes
- Nature: There is strong evidence that COVID-19 increases the risk of CKD
- Yale: Confirmed the evidence, but also found that CKD developed due to COVID-19 recovered faster
- We found mixed literature on the causal link between COVID-19 and Cancer
Disability
- Center for American Progress: By the end of 2021, 1.2 million more disabled americans
Vaccine
Conclusion¶
Conclusion¶
- Vaccine works!
- Many sources also report that vaccines reduce the risk of long-COVID symptoms
- All-time highs for: disability, CKD, diabetes, depression, asthma, and non-skin cancers
- Agreed with the literature on: disability, CKD, diabetes, depression, and asthma
Sources will be available in our report